Hurricane Rafael Is Expected to Develop, but Will the Storm Have an Impact on the U.S.?

Mar. 15, 2025

A new tropical cyclone has formed in the Atlantic afterbrewing over the Caribbeanfor several days, but forecasters are unsure if and how it will impact portions of the United States.

The storm system was officially deemedTropical Depression 18on Monday, Nov. 4, after reaching maximum sustained wind speeds of 35 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Never miss a story — sign up forPEOPLE’s free daily newsletterto stay up-to-date on the best of what PEOPLE has to offer, from celebrity news to compelling human interest stories.

After reaching the Gulf of Mexico, however, forecasters find it difficult to predict where the storm system will go, or how it will impact the U.S.

“Given significant uncertainties in the long-range forecast track and intensity, it is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts could occur,”NHC forecasters saidin a discussion update on Monday.

The National Hurricane Center’s current projected track for what is soon to be Hurricane Rafael.National Hurricane Center/Noaa

National Hurricane Center/Noaa

Those in the Florida Keys in particular “should closely monitor this system” as it continues on its current path, according to the NHC, which said “tropical storm watches could be required for portions of these areas.”

Heavy rainfall from the storm system is forecast to “spread north into Florida” and other portions of the southeast U.S. “mid to late week.”

Though the storm’s final track remains uncertain, forecasters predict that a number of factors may cause the storm to weaken as it approaches the U.S.

But AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski toldUSA Todaythe system could still create “a significant wind and rain event” for any land it may strike.

“There are still going to be impacts even if it’s a tropical storm,” explained Pydynowski, who urged those along the Gulf Coast to remain alert.

Hurricane Rafael wind speed probabilities.National Hurricane Center/Noaa

Assuming this system becomes Rafael, there will be just four names — Sara, Tony, Valerie and William — left on the list for this hurricane season, which ends on Saturday, Nov. 30.

After all 21 names on the list have been assigned to a storm, forecasters will use the Greek alphabet to name storms until the season ends.

Additionally,forecasters predictan area of low pressure is currently sitting over the Atlantic near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola that has about a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next seven days.

source: people.com